After 18 months of blogging, I'm declaring a hiatus to this blog. I'll occasionally post items that infuriate/amuse me, however don't expect much.
In the meantime, until I get the itch again, check out this blog by a close friend of mine.
Friday, May 1, 2009
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Changing your Mind
What a difference a month makes...
March 17, 2009:
"Gagetown Mayor Randy Smith was aghast at the news after Tuesday's budget.
"My jaw dropped. Unbelievable," Smith said.
"All I can say is that Al Capone has Valentine's Day, and now [N.B. Premier] Shawn Graham has St. Paddy's Day. He has the St. Paddy's Day massacre on his hands. It is unbelievable."
April 27, 2009:
"(Gagetown Mayor Randy) Smith also praised the Liberals' budget - the very document that slashed his village's ferry in the first place.
Smith told reporters the government had "received accolades across the country for its budget."
March 17, 2009:
"Gagetown Mayor Randy Smith was aghast at the news after Tuesday's budget.
"My jaw dropped. Unbelievable," Smith said.
"All I can say is that Al Capone has Valentine's Day, and now [N.B. Premier] Shawn Graham has St. Paddy's Day. He has the St. Paddy's Day massacre on his hands. It is unbelievable."
April 27, 2009:
"(Gagetown Mayor Randy) Smith also praised the Liberals' budget - the very document that slashed his village's ferry in the first place.
Smith told reporters the government had "received accolades across the country for its budget."
Monday, April 27, 2009
Differing Views
The Independent welcomes both differing views and corrections on my half-baked opinion and analysis. A kind friend provides this rejoinder to last week's pension question:
Public sector accounting practices set out by the Chartered Accounts of Canada require you to report loss of assets as an "expense" on the books. The province is reporting projected pension "expenses" of $300 million in each of the four years, but there are no "payments" - an important distinction. The pension fund has not, and is not expected to have, shrunk enough to require any payments before the market rebounds and the fund recovers.
However, in order to maintain New Brunswick's credit rating, the province has to show the bond rating agencies that we are planning for the worst case scenario and not looking upon the markets with rose-coloured glasses. Therefore, the province is projecting a loss of $300 million per year (worst case scenario) in the public sector pension plan for each of the next four years. It is ignored for the purposes of determining the surplus because it is not likely that we will have the worst case in each of the next four years.
Helpful links:
http://www.psab-ccsp.ca/index.cfm/ci_id/225/la_id/1.htm
http://www.allbusiness.com/government/employment-regulations/708061-1.html
http://www.investopedia.com/university/financialstatements/financialstatements9.asp
Public sector accounting practices set out by the Chartered Accounts of Canada require you to report loss of assets as an "expense" on the books. The province is reporting projected pension "expenses" of $300 million in each of the four years, but there are no "payments" - an important distinction. The pension fund has not, and is not expected to have, shrunk enough to require any payments before the market rebounds and the fund recovers.
However, in order to maintain New Brunswick's credit rating, the province has to show the bond rating agencies that we are planning for the worst case scenario and not looking upon the markets with rose-coloured glasses. Therefore, the province is projecting a loss of $300 million per year (worst case scenario) in the public sector pension plan for each of the next four years. It is ignored for the purposes of determining the surplus because it is not likely that we will have the worst case in each of the next four years.
Helpful links:
http://www.psab-ccsp.ca/index.cfm/ci_id/225/la_id/1.htm
http://www.allbusiness.com/government/employment-regulations/708061-1.html
http://www.investopedia.com/university/financialstatements/financialstatements9.asp
Stats Fail
The Times & Transcript reported on a Greater Moncton wide poll on provincial politics in Saturday's paper. Overall, the region gave the provincial Liberals a "fair" grade. However, the T&T noticed this disturbing trend:
"Looking at the responses to the Graham question by age demographic, it's interesting to note that 100 per cent of the people in 18-24 age group said Graham was doing a poor job.
(...)
"The younger demographic doesn't have much use for Graham or Harper," Hunt said, noting the numbers reflect the fluidity of voter opinion and they seem "ready to make up their minds and boot out Shawn Graham." "
Young people unanimously gave Shawn Graham a failing grade. Disturbing, indeed, unless you look at the poll results:
"Looking at the responses to the Graham question by age demographic, it's interesting to note that 100 per cent of the people in 18-24 age group said Graham was doing a poor job.
(...)
"The younger demographic doesn't have much use for Graham or Harper," Hunt said, noting the numbers reflect the fluidity of voter opinion and they seem "ready to make up their minds and boot out Shawn Graham." "
Young people unanimously gave Shawn Graham a failing grade. Disturbing, indeed, unless you look at the poll results:
A grand total of two (2) people in the 18-24 demographic were interviewed, giving us a maximum margin of error of roughly 69%, 19 times out of twenty.
While I'm sure young people are generally cynical of politicians, I strongly doubt that young voters are about to descend on the polls en masse in 2010 to vote out the Liberals. My opinion is seconded in the Bristol Group's 2009 CityThink survey of Moncton:
"Interestingly, Mr. Graham’s government is rated higher by younger voters, while the federal Conservatives are rated best by older voters."
Young people, therefore, either like or don't like the Liberal government. I guarantee there's a 50% chance of either response being true.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Pension Funds
From Der Spiegel, a story on how the EU Parliament Pension Fund is being topped up with taxpayer dollars after losses of €120 million. The pension fund for the Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) lost the money due to excessively risky investments.
Here in New Brunswick, our public pension fund will be provided with $300 million of taxpayer dollars for at least the next four years. You'll remember that through creative subtraction of this annual pension bailout, Victor Boudreau was able to turn a projected three hundred million dollar deficit in 2012 into a modest surplus. This creative subtraction was one of five pillars of the Liberal Plan for a Stronger Economy that was sent to every New Brunswick household last month.
$300 million is a lot of money. It's more than we spend annually on the Departments of Supply and Services and Transportation combined. It's enough to run our entire school system for a quarter of a year. What happened to the public pension fund that we are topping it up by this amount annually? What investments were made, and what threshold of risk was the portfolio crossing?
It's odd that a loss of nearly C$200,000,000 is a "huge scandal" in Europe, but a 33% larger expense in tiny New Brunswick is quickly forgotten.
Here in New Brunswick, our public pension fund will be provided with $300 million of taxpayer dollars for at least the next four years. You'll remember that through creative subtraction of this annual pension bailout, Victor Boudreau was able to turn a projected three hundred million dollar deficit in 2012 into a modest surplus. This creative subtraction was one of five pillars of the Liberal Plan for a Stronger Economy that was sent to every New Brunswick household last month.
$300 million is a lot of money. It's more than we spend annually on the Departments of Supply and Services and Transportation combined. It's enough to run our entire school system for a quarter of a year. What happened to the public pension fund that we are topping it up by this amount annually? What investments were made, and what threshold of risk was the portfolio crossing?
It's odd that a loss of nearly C$200,000,000 is a "huge scandal" in Europe, but a 33% larger expense in tiny New Brunswick is quickly forgotten.
Recommended Reading
I've been able to read for pleasure much more recently. I was able to reduce some mindless web browsing in the evenings in exchange for 30 or 45 minutes of good ol' fashioned book learnin'. Sometimes I sink into books, and finish them in a few days. This happened with V for Vendetta. Other times, I never really get hooked. That happened with Naomi Klein's Shock Doctrine, a book I never could get going with.
I just finished Gang Leader for a Day, by Prof Sudhir Venkatesh of Columbia University*. I devoured this book. Venkatesh was mentioned several times in Freakonomics as the "rogue sociologist" who researched life in the Chicago projects during the crack epidemic of the late '80s and early '90s. His explanations of gang life, personal relationships in the projects, and everyday street hustling opened my eyes beyond media and political stereotypes of poverty.
One idea from the book really compared well to what is going on in Somalia today. Venkatesh described the gangs around the projects as a sort of neighbourhood militia. Police officers could not be counted upon for civil protection, and thus gangs provided a given amount of policing to the area.
The pirates in Somalia have been described in similar terms. K'naan, the Somali-Canadian rapper has given many interviews about Somali views of the pirates. They see the pirates as an informal coast guard, protecting the people from overfishing and illegal dumping. In one case, the government has failed to provide basic services to a large section of the population; in the other, the government has ceased to exist. In both cases, the people get together to do things for themselves.
I really enjoyed Gang Leader for a Day, and I'll be returning it to the Fredericton Public Library on Saturday morning. Get it while it's hot.
--
* Fun fact: The University of New Brunswick was modeled upon King's College of New York City, which evolved into Columbia University after the Revolutionary War. The Loyalists/Tories who fled New York founded UNB in 1785.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Carleton Free Press
Via Gypsy-blog, a story about the rise and fall of the Carleton Free Press, the former non-Irving paper in Woodstock, NB. The article was written by STU Journalism student Jason Williams as a final project for his course."Jody Coughlin, Anthony Cooper, Bob Rupert, myself and everyone involved at the FreePress believed or said they believed in the ideals freedom of expression, speech and the press represented. While it will forever be viewed as the little paper that couldn’t it represented so much more. It gave us the confidence to do what we believed in."
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